Southern California Real Estate Market

Thursday, January 19, 2012

The Real Estate Geeks: Will Home Values Rise This Year?

Will your home gain value over the next 12 months? Nobody can know for sure, of course, but should recent housing trends continue, there's concrete cause for optimism.

The housing economy has suffered since 2007, knocking home values down nearly 20% nationwide. And while some areas have fared better as compared to others but, in general, home values are down.

Mortgage rates are down, too, and that's good news for buyers. The combination of low rates and low prices has led home affordability to an all-time high. As you'll hear in this 4-minute interview with NBC's The Today Show, carrying a mortgage costs 25% less per month as compared to just 3 years ago.

Some other notes from the interview include :

There are more buyers out looking for homes today, which leads to more sales
The housing market is expected to get gradually better, month-by-month, in 2012
Foreclosures will continue to be a big part of the housing market

With housing supplies shrinking, buyers throughout California may find their best "deals" today -- before the Spring Buying Season begins in February.

However, we can't forget that housing markets are local -- not national. Each town and neighborhood has its own market drivers and prices where you live may have already started to climb.

For accurate, up-to-date data on the housing market, talk with a local real estate agent.

Thanks for checking out our videos & blogs - If you or someone you know is thinking about making a move within the next 30, 60, or even 90 days please give us a call at 714-720-2555 Our time is dedicated your buying & selling needs. We are always just a call or a click away... To stay up-to-date subscribe to our site located at http:www.TheRealEstateGeeksTv.com

Do you know someone who maybe in financial trouble? Someone who may even be facing a foreclosure? Have them visit - http:www.Help4Ca.com until Till Next Time

Take Care, Melissa Bayles (714) 720-2555 & "Chip" Richard Esajian (714) 272-5369 The Real Estate Geeks

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The Real Estate Geeks: Fed Minutes Show An Improving U.S. Economy Threatened By The Eurozone

FOMC Minutes December 2011 The Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed Minutes are a detailed meeting recap; the companion piece to the more brief, more well-known press release.

As a comparison, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting contained 60 paragraphs and 7,027 words. The post-meeting press release was just 5 paragraphs and 382 words.

December's Fed Minutes shows Fed members with a positive, cautious, take on the economy.

Recent data suggests that the U.S. economy is expanding, the Fed said, but "strains" in global financial markets pose "significant risks" to the downside. This tell us that the Fed believes its economy-stimulating programs are working, but that officials remained concerned by events in the Eurozone.

The U.S. economy could be impacted by fallout.

Other meeting consensus included :

On growth : The economy is expanding, despite slowing in "global economic growth"
On housing : Data suggests the "depressed" market "could be improving"
On inflation : Prices are stable, and remain within tolerance levels

The Fed's analysis was of little surprise to Wall Street, and going forward, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to keep it that way. The Fed Minutes contained a passage regarding market communication, and how the Fed will be more pro-active about it in the future.

With the release of its minutes, in a section called "Market Policy Communications", the Federal Reserve showed its plans to release 4 times annually its economic forecasts, and plans for the Fed Funds Rate. This signals in a shift in Federal Reserve transparency.

The Federal Reserve will begin including the forecast in its economic projections beginning after its next policy meeting, January 24-25, 2012.

Mortgage rates in California were little changed after the release of the Fed Minutes.

Do you know someone who maybe in financial trouble? Someone who may even be facing a foreclosure? Have them visit - http:www.Help4Ca.com until Till Next Time

Take Care, Melissa Bayles (714) 720-2555 & "Chip" Richard Esajian (714) 272-5369 The Real Estate Geeks

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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The Real Estate Geeks: Home Affordability Set To Worsen On Thursday's Retail Sales Data

Retail Sales Growth (2008-2011)

Consumer spending continues to rise nationwide, fueled by jobs growth and a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers |*STATE in % STATE**|, it may also lead to higher mortgage rates later this week.

Thursday morning, the Census Bureau will release its U.S. Retail Sales data for December. The report is expected to show an 18th consecutive monthly increase, with analysts projecting sales volume higher by 0.4 percent from November.

This would be double the increase from last month, which saw a 0.2 percent increase in Retail Sales.

The Retail Sales report tallies receipts collected by retail and food-service stores nationwide. When the sum of these receipts rise, it puts pressure on mortgage rates to do the same. The connection is straight-forward.

Retail Sales are the largest part of "consumer spending" and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy -- up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

As the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

Remember: today's ultra-low mortgage rates have been partially fueled by weak economies -- both domestic and abroad -- going back 4 years. Stock markets have sold off as economies have faltered worldwide, leading investors to seek refuge in the relative safety of U.S.-backed mortgage bond market. The new-found demand for mortgage-backed bonds has helped drop mortgage rates to levels never seen in history.

When economic recovery is apparent, therefore, we should expect a mortgage rate reversal, and should expect for it to happen quickly. Stock markets should rise; bond markets should fall. Mortgage rates will climb. Rate shoppers will lose.

Last week's strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy. If Thursday Retail Sales data reveals similar strength, the risk in "floating" your mortgage rate may be too great. The safer play is to lock your rate today.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

Thanks for checking out our videos & blogs - If you or someone you know is thinking about making a move within the next 30, 60, or even 90 days please don't keep us a secret... Have them give us a call st 714-272-5369 Our time is dedicated your buying & selling needs. Call or click - We are always just a call or click away... To stay up-to-date subscribe/follow us http:www.TheRealEstateGeeksTv.com

Do you know someone who maybe in financial trouble? Someone who may even be facing foreclosure? They have options! Have them visit - http:www.Help4Ca.com until Till Next Time

Take Care, Melissa Bayles (714) 720-2555 & "Chip" Richard Esajian (714) 272-5369 The Real Estate Geeks

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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

The Real Estate Geeks: Lock Your Mortgage Rate : New Loan Fees Expected Within Days

Payroll tax fees for new loans Starting soon, nearly all home buyers and refinancing households throughout California and nationwide will pay higher mortgage loan fees. Congress has made it law.

13 months ago, as part of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, Congress enacted a one-year cut to FICA payroll taxes.

FICA stands for Federal Insurance Contributions Act. Taxes collected under FICA fund such programs as Social Security and Medicare.

The stimulus plan temporarily lowered tax rates for salaried workers from 6.2% to 4.2%; and for self-employed persons from 12.4% to 10.4%. Effective January 1, 2012, "regular" tax rates were to return.

That is, until late-December 2011. In one of its last moves of the year, Congress passed a temporary, two-month extension to the payroll tax cut, extending it through February 29, 2012. The expected cost to the U.S. Treasury is $33 billion.

To recoup those costs, Congress has turned to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA.

Each entity has been ordered to collect news fees on each new mortgage is backs, and has been told to forward said fees to U.S. Treasury directly. There's no "workaround" allowed or forgiveness applied -- each new loan is subject to the payment.

The rules are listed on page 17 of the law's final draft, in a section unambiguously titled "Title IV -- Mortgage Fees and Premiums".

According to the law :

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must collect an average fee of no less than 10 basis points (0.1%) per new loan
The FHA must raise its monthly mortgage insurance premiums 10 basis points for all new loans

The expected cost to consumers is no less than $10 monthly per $100,000 borrowed. Some analysts, however, expect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to collect more than is minimally required. This could add an additional $30-50 to your monthly mortgage payment per $100,000 borrowed.

Therefore, if you've been shopping for a home or for mortgage rates , take advantage. Within days, lenders are expected to start collecting Payroll Tax Extension fees from mortgage applicants -- a move that will cost you money.

Lock today to avoid the big fees. Save yourself money.

Do you know someone who maybe in financial trouble? Someone who may even be facing a foreclosure? Have them visit - http:www.Help4Ca.com until Till Next Time

Take Care, Melissa Bayles (714) 720-2555 & "Chip" Richard Esajian (714) 272-5369 The Real Estate Geeks

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Monday, January 9, 2012

Housing And Mortgage : The Experts Make Their 2012 Predictions

What's next for housing in 2012 As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.

Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who's right and who's wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals "experts" with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It's tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some "on-the-record" predictions for 2012 :

Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker)
Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (ays the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a "prediction" from fact at times.

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we're inclined to believe what we read and hear.

This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future -- whether it's housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else -- are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.

Predictions are guesses about what might come next -- nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today's market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates "with points" price in the 3s.

What 2012 has in store we just can't know.

New Home Supply 2010-2011 New home inventory is approaching bull market territory.

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold rose 2 percent in November. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 315,000 newly-built homes last month.

November's New Home Sales data marks the 4th straight month of rising sales volume, lifting the housing-market metric to a 7-month high, and adding to the housing market's recent show of strength.

Last week, we learned that Existing Home Sales also climbed in November.

The big story in the New Home Sales report, though, is the remaining new home supply nationwide.

With just 158,000 homes "on the market" and the pace of home sales hastening, the complete, national inventory of "new homes" would now be sold in just 6.0 months, a 0.2-month improvement from October. This is the quickest home sales pace in nearly 6 years for the new construction market.

It's even faster than in April 2010 -- the buyer-deadline month of last year's federal home buyer tax credit.

Home builders expect the trend to continue, too. Buyer foot traffic is on the rise and builders have a strong outlook for the next 6 months.

It's an unsettling series of developments for today's home buyers. As home supplies drop and builders gain confidence, the ability of an buyer to negotiate for price reduction and/or upgrades shrinks.

If you're a home buyer in search of new construction, therefore, consider that the best new construction "deals" of the next 12 months may be the ones you find today.

Thanks for checking out our videos & blogs - Our time is dedicated your buying & selling needs. Call or click - but contact us today For more current real estate market information just visit our website at http:www.TheRealEstateGeeksTv.com

If you or someone you know is facing foreclosure here's tons of FREE information that will be very useful - http:www.Help4Ca.com until Till Next Time

Take Care, Melissa Bayles (714) 720-2555 & "Chip" Richard Esajian (714) 272-5369 The Real Estate Geeks

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The Real Estate Geeks: New Home Sales Approach Bull Market Territory