As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.
Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.
Who's right and who's wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals "experts" with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It's tough to know who to believe.
For example, here are some "on-the-record" predictions for 2012 :
- Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
- Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
- Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker)
- Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (ays the LA Times)
The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a "prediction" from fact at times.
When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we're inclined to believe what we read and hear.
This is human nature.
However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future -- whether it's housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else -- are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.
Predictions are guesses about what might come next -- nothing more.
For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.
All we can know for certain about today's market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions nationwide.
At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates "with points" price in the 3s.
What 2012 has in store we just can't know.
New home inventory is approaching bull market territory.
According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold rose 2 percent in November. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 315,000 newly-built homes last month.
November's New Home Sales data marks the 4th straight month of rising sales volume, lifting the housing-market metric to a 7-month high, and adding to the housing market's recent show of strength.
Last week, we learned that Existing Home Sales also climbed in November.
The big story in the New Home Sales report, though, is the remaining new home supply nationwide.
With just 158,000 homes "on the market" and the pace of home sales hastening, the complete, national inventory of "new homes" would now be sold in just 6.0 months, a 0.2-month improvement from October. This is the quickest home sales pace in nearly 6 years for the new construction market.
It's even faster than in April 2010 -- the buyer-deadline month of last year's federal home buyer tax credit.
Home builders expect the trend to continue, too. Buyer foot traffic is on the rise and builders have a strong outlook for the next 6 months.
It's an unsettling series of developments for today's home buyers. As home supplies drop and builders gain confidence, the ability of an buyer to negotiate for price reduction and/or upgrades shrinks.
If you're a home buyer in search of new construction, therefore, consider that the best new construction "deals" of the next 12 months may be the ones you find today.
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